gracchusdixit

Consumed as we have been by the burlesque spectacle of Donald J. Trump becoming the Presidential nominee of the Republican Party and quite possibly the next President of the United States, Americans have paid scant attention to a decision looming on the other side of the Atlantic that is far more consequential.  In exactly one week, a referendum will decide whether the United Kingdom remains part of the European Union or leaves it altogether.  The latest polling indicates that public opinion in the UK has shifted toward “Brexit”—i.e., leaving.   If that comes to pass, it will be nothing less than an economic and political earthquake.

With more than 400 million people, the European Union is the largest economic entity in the world—larger than economies of the United States, China, India, or Brazil.  It is no exaggeration to say that, as the EU goes, so goes the global economy.  If Britain leaves the EU, the fate, not only of the EU itself, but of the global economy will be up for grabs.

Apart from economic considerations, there are enormous political, military, diplomatic, and legal stakes as well.  Literally hundreds of treaties and trade agreements will have to be renegotiated—if they can be pieced together at all.   The military obligations of NATO, which are inextricably tied to both the UK and the EU, will be compromised. Shared and fundamental legal standards—regarding human rights, immigration, labor, and environmental protections—will be jeopardized.   Other EU nations may conclude that they too should consider leaving, or, at the very least, renegotiating the terms of their membership.

Specific British interests will also be jeopardized.  The square mile or so of central London that is called “The City” is the financial capital of Europe, and, after New York, the epicenter of global investment banking.  The contribution of “The City” to the British economy is roughly twice Wall Street’s contribution to ours.  If  the British vote for “Brexit,” “The City” will lose its free and open access to the financial markets of Continental Europe.  It will inevitably shrink, if not shrivel.  The same fate will afflict every sector of the British economy: manufacturing, agriculture, technology, transportation, and luxury goods.  The best-case forecasts indicate that British GDP will decline two percent; the worst-case predict a drop of five.  No one pretends to be able to say how long the damage will last or when, if ever, it will be reversed.

Why, one must therefore ask, are the British even considering such a step?

One, not entirely irrational, answer is that the European Union has unquestioned flaws and limitations, combining heartless German economics with heavy-handed French bureaucracy.  It has yet to resolve many of its most important economic and political contradictions, not the least of which is how to sustain a single currency without a single budgetary or fiscal policy.  As a result, the economy of Europe is stuck in a rut, one of its own making, condemning countries like Greece and Spain to severe depressions that show no signs of abating.

Despite all that, the European Union has done more to advance the cause of civilization and common decency than any human institution in the modern era.  As it created the largest free and open market in history, it also promulgated fundamental standards protecting workers and consumers, led the way in combatting the effects of climate change, and established the only legal institutions with enough global credibility to hold the world’s worst villains accountable for their countless evils.  If the British people decide to pull out of the EU, all that could well go up in smoke.

So could the United Kingdom itself—for the idea of leaving the EU is a very much an “English,” rather than a “British,” impulse.  The Scots have made no secret of their desire to remain part of Europe. They came perilously close to turning their backs on the UK two years ago.  Many believed then and believe now that they have more in common with the social democracies of the European mainland than with the laissez-faire, dog-eat-dog economic ideas of the UK’s governing elite.  If the English insist on leaving the EU, it is not impossible that the Scots will go their separate way.

The Scots may not be alone.  The first minister of Wales, which has been part of Great Britain for seven centuries, has warned of a “constitutional crisis” if the English, and only English among the various British peoples, vote to leave the European Union.  Not only is the economy of Wales heavily dependent on its continued membership in the EU, its social, cultural, and moral inclinations bend the same way.   Like the Scots, the Welsh could well choose Europe over England.

In the end, the motivations of those who advocate the suicidal notion of leaving the European Union have little to do with reason or logic.  They are visceral, and they have much in common with what is happening here, in the United States.

The advocates of “Brexit,” like Donald Trump, exploit nativism, racism, and isolationism; they want to build walls and close borders; they scapegoat immigrants for the failings of global capitalism; they inflame a selfish and suspicious hatred of “the other”—Muslims and Hispanics, Syrians and Sikhs, Turkish guest workers and bureaucrats in Brussels.

We are living in a time when the very idea of our common humanity is breaking apart.  If the British and the American people bow and bend to this awful drift, if they yield to the worst instincts of human nature, the future will become darker for the all of us.