gracchusdixit

For Donald Trump, the New Year shows every prospect of bringing in, not the “cup o’ kindness” of the Robert Burns poem, but a cup of bitter gall.  Whether he realizes it or not, Trump’s worst nightmare began at noon today, as a Democratic majority took control of the House of Representatives, and the Honorable Nancy Pelosi became, for the second time, the Speaker of the House.  

This is one of the most consequential constitutional offices in the land, putting Pelosi third in the line of presidential succession.   If Trump were to be impeached or forced to resign,  and if Mike Pence were revealed to have been complicit in abetting his crimes, Nancy Pelosi would automatically become the 46th President of the United States.  

Just imagine what that would do to the feeble mental circuity, not only of Trump himself, but of Republicans at large, who have spent decades trying to cast Pelosi as the political equivalent of Satan.  

Though unlikely, such an outcome is not beyond the realm of possibility.  With the passing of every new day, the Trump presidency grows shakier, his behavior becomes more erratic, and evidence mounts that he has violated countless laws and the constitution.

It does not require impeachment, however, for Nancy Pelosi to make Donald Trump’s life miserable.  She is, to begin with, much shrewder and more intelligent than the man whose principal adversary she is about to become.  She is also infinitely better prepared.  

Unlike Donald Trump, Pelosi was born into a political family.  Her father was a Democratic congressman from Maryland.  Both he and her brother served as mayors of Baltimore, a city known for its bare-knuckle, take-no-prisoners brand of politics.  Thus, Nancy Pelosi grew up watching and learning from real, professional politicians—not blustering amateurs like Trump.  

And she put what she learned to good work.  

Nancy Pelosi has spent the better part of 50 years in politics, on the local, state, and national levels.  She has been a major figure in the Democrat Party for much of that time, and she has been remarkably successful.

Not only is she the first woman to have been elected Speaker of the House—an historic achievement by any measure—she is also one of the most effective Speakers, male or female, in the history of the institution.  It is universally acknowledged, even by her foes, that her political and legislative skills are on a par with legendary deal-makers and arm-twisters like Sam Rayburn and Tip O’Neill.  

The contrast between Nancy Pelosi and her predecessor, Paul Ryan, could not be more stark.  Ryan’s tenure as Speaker of the House was a catastrophe for Republicans, devoid of any significant legislative accomplishments, apart from a tax cut for the rich that has become almost universally reviled.  Thanks in large part to Ryan’s feckless incompetence, as well as his spineless subservience to Trump, Republicans suffered an historic defeat in the 2018 mid-term election.  Unlike Ryan, Pelosi knows how to count votes, maintain discipline in her caucus, and get results.  As one of her closest confidants recently observed, “Nancy never forgets.”  The people “Nancy never forgets” include both her friends and her enemies.  

One sign of Pelosi’s redoubtable shrewdness is the deal she struck with progressive Democrats, who ran on a promise to vote against her as the next Speaker.  To give those progressives cover, she offered to step aside in four years, opening the door for a possible replacement from their ranks.  

This offer, of course, cost Pelosi nothing.  In four years, she will be well into her 80s and will probably be happier spending time with her grandchildren than trying to arm-wrestle the ambitious wannabes in the Democratic party.  

In short, to achieve her ultimate ends, Nancy Pelosi knows how to play the “long game”.  Is it likely that an impulsive and reactive “day-trader” like Donald Trump, who flits from one phony crisis to another, like a bee randomly snatching pollen from petals, can hope to win such a game?  The only rational answer is:  no.

To make matters worse, the nightmare Trump is about to face does not end with Nancy Pelosi.  A cadre of relentless—and relentlessly competent—Democrats are about to take charge of key congressional committees that, for the last two years, have been headed by bumbling Trump lackeys, sycophants, and apologists.  These committees have the legal and constitutional power to compel the Trump administration to comply with their demands, and there is little doubt that their new chairs will use that power.

The former Republican Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes, a dim-witted right-wing ideologue who spent the last two years as Trump’s political bagman, is being replaced by Adam Schiff.  Schiff is a Harvard-trained lawyer and one-time federal prosecutor, known for his unrelenting pursuit of criminality and corruption.  As a prosecutor, Schiff was famous for getting convictions.  As the new Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, he is about to turn his prosecutorial sights on Donald Trump.

The former Republican Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Bob Goodlatte, spent the last two years trying to convince the country that the FBI was behind a secret conspiracy to destroy Donald Trump and elect Hillary Clinton—and, for all I know, behind a conspiracy to assassinate JFK and fabricate the moon landing.   Goodlatte is being replaced by a congressman from New York named Jerry Nadler.  Like Adam Schiff, Nadler is an attorney.  But he has been in politics most of his adult life, having been elected to congress 12 times, in each case by overwhelming margins.  There is nothing, nothing at all, that Trump can do to intimidate or reward, corrupt or cajole Jerry Nadler.  

The former Republican Chairman of the House Oversight Committee, Trey Gowdy, wasted years and millions of taxpayer dollars on the fictional Benghazi investigation, which accomplished exactly nothing except to embarrass Gowdy himself.  He is being replaced by Elijah Cummings, one of the longest-serving and most respected members of the House of Representatives.  Like Schiff and Nadler, Cummings is a lawyer—and a formidable one.  There is little doubt that Chairman Cummings will rip the scabs off the conflicts of interest and corruption that permeate the Trump administration.  

On some level at least, Donald Trump must know all this.  As ignorant and ill-formed, as crude and cowardly, as selfish and self-absorbed as he undoubtedly is, there is ample evidence that he has a feral instinct for survival.  Like a hunted animal, he must smell danger on the wind, hear the footsteps of his pursuers, and feel their hot breath beating down on the hackles of his neck.  Surely, Donald Trump knows that he will soon find himself trapped in the dark recesses of a deep cave, where his only options will be to snarl and snap or to whimper in surrender.

Happy New Year, Mr. President!  Enjoy the nightmare.